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Book#0040 – The Art of Thinking Clearly

Book0040-The Art of Thinking Clearly

The Art of Thinking Clearly

Rolf Dobelli
20130514

About This Book

We are all guilty of cognitive biases, simple errors we make in day-to-day thinking. But by knowing what they are and how to identify them, we can avoid them and make better choices. The Art of Thinking Clearly shows that in order to lead happier, more prosperous lives, we don’t need extra cunning, new ideas, shiny gadgets, or more frantic activity—all we need is less irrationality. Simple, clear, and always surprising, this book will change the way you think and transform your decision making. From why you should not accept movie you don’t like, from why it’s so hard to predict the future to why you shouldn’t watch the news, The Art of Thinking Clearly helps solve the puzzle of human reasoning.

Contents

01.  Survivorship Bias

02.  Swimmer’s Body Illusion

03.  Clustering Illusion

04.  Social Proof

05.  Sunk Cost Fallacy

06.  Reciprocity

07.  Confirmation Bias (Part 1)

08.  Confirmation Bias (Part 2)

09.  Authority Bias

10.  Contrast Effect

11.  Availability Bias

12.  The It’ll-Get-Worse-Before-It-Gets-Better Fallacy

13.  Story Bias

14.  Hindsight Bias

15.  Overconfidence Effect

16.  Chauffeur Knowledge

17.  Illusion of Control

18.  Incentive Super-Response Tendency

19.  Regression to Mean

20.  Outcome Bias

21.  Paradox of Choice

22.  Liking Bias

23.  Endowment Effect

24.  Coincidence

25.  Groupthink

26.  Neglect of Probability

27.  Scarcity Error

28.  Base-Rate Neglect

29.  Gambler’s Fallacy

30.  The Anchor

31.  Induction

32.  Loss Aversion

33.  Social Loafing

34.  Exponential Growth

35.  Winner’s Curse

36.  Fundamental Attribution Error

37.  False Causality

38.  Halo Effect

39.  Alternative Paths

40.  Forecast Illusion

41.  Conjunction Fallacy

42.  Framing

43.  Action Bias

44.  Omission Bias

45.  Self-Serving Bias

46.  Hedonic Treadmill

47.  Self-Selection Bias

48.  Association Bias

49.  Beginner’s Luck

50.  Cognitive Dissonance

51.  Hyperbolic Discounting

52.  Because Justification

53.  Decision Fatigue

54.  Contagion Bias

55.  The Problem with Averages

56.  Motivation Crowding

57.  Twaddle Tendency

58.  Will Rogers Phenomenon

59.  Information Bias

60.  Effort Justification

61.  The Law of Small Numbers

62.  Expectations

63.  Simple Logic

64.  Forer Effect

65.  Volunteer’s Folly

66.  Affect Heuristic

67.  Introspection Illusion

68.  Inability to Close Doors

69.  Neomania

70.  Sleeper Effect

71.  Alternative Blindness

72.  Social Comparison Bias

73.  Primacy and Recency Effects

74.  Not-Invented-Here Syndrome

75.  The Black Swan

76.  Domain Dependence

77.  False-Consensus Effect

78.  Falsification of History

79.  In-Group Out-Group Bias

80.  Ambiguity Aversion

81.  Default Effect

82.  Fear of Regret

83.  Salience Effect

84.  House-Money Effect

85.  Procrastination

86.  Envy

87.  Personification

88.  Illusion of Attention

89.  Strategic Misrepresentation

90.  Overthinking

91.  Planning Fallacy

92.  Déformation Professionnelle

93.  Zeigarnik Effect

94.  Illusion of Skill

95.  Feature-Positive Effect

96.  Cherry Picking

97.  Fallacy of the Single Cause

98.  Intention-to-Treat Error

99.  News Illusion

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