The closer your internal model of reality matches actual reality, the more capable you become. Greater accuracy means greater fitness for life as a human being. With an accurate map, you’re more likely to make sound decisions that will take you in the direction of your desires. With an inaccurate map, you’re more likely to experience setbacks and frustration.
Total clarity is a rarity. When you pursue a particular career, you’ll never know if a different one might have turned out better. When you’re in a relationship, you can never be certain that a more compatible partner isn’t right around the corner. Whenever you make one decision, you’ll never know what would have happened if you made a different choice.
The worst part is that even when you do feel certain, that’s still no guarantee you’re correct. You’ve been wrong before, haven’t you? History says it’s a safe bet that there’s something you think you know right now that will later prove to be false.
You can try to gain as much clarity as possible about a given situation, and that’s generally a good idea, but you can never eliminate all uncertainty. So you have two basic options: deny the unpredictability of life and create your own false sense of security, or accept the vagaries of life and learn to live with them. In the first case, you’re drawing your map of reality the way you want it to be, regardless of what the actual terrain looks like. In the second case, you’re striving to make your map as accurate as possible, even though you may dislike how it looks. The second option is better.
When you accept the inherent uncertainty of life, your decisions will increase in accuracy. You’ll find it easier to avoid mistakes like gambling away all your money or falling into an abusive relationship, and you’ll be in a better position to capitalize on genuine opportunities. You needn’t be paralyzed by the unpredictability of life. The key is to intelligently manage risks instead of denying their existence. Learn to thrive on uncertainty, and even enjoy it.
Another problem is that your predictions could be incorrect. Some inaccuracies will self-correct as you gain additional experience and deepen your understanding of reality, but many times those errors can worsen and become self-reinforcing. Here are some examples of how your mind’s predictive powers can fail you:
Overgeneralization. You have a few bad dating experiences, so your mind learns the pattern that dating is disappointing. Consequently, you avoid going on any more dates because you see the activity as something to avoid. Unfortunately, this means you’ll never again have a positive dating experience, which would have allowed your mind to correct his belief. Old patterns persist as long as they remain unchallenged.
Prejudice. You overhear your co-workers complaining that someone who was just hired is apparently a real pain to work with. This causes you to harbor negative expectations about the new hire. During your first assignment with this person, you naturally expect trouble, so you resist working together cooperatively. The other person picks up on your negative treatment and responds in kind, thereby fulfilling your expectations. Making snap judgments without the benefit of direct experience often leads to erroneous conclusions.
Self-fulfilling prophecy. A number of your friends try to start their own online businesses, but they all fail and eventually give up. From their example, your mind learns that starting an online business is difficult and will most likely lead to failure. A year later you decide to launch your own Web-based enterprise. You subconsciously sabotage yourself by making avoidable mistakes, and eventually you give up, just as your friends did.
These problematic patterns all share a common element: their predictions are overly pessimistic. Such patterns can magnify fear, lower self-esteem, and induce negative emotions like worry and stress. In the worst cases, overly pessimistic predictions can cause depression, helplessness, and even suicide. On the other hand, being too optimistic is just as problematic and can lead to overconfidence, unreasonable risk taking, and manic behavior.
The best predictions are the most accurate ones, but where self-reinforcement is concerned, it’s better to strengthen high self-esteem, positive emotions, and a reasonable degree of initiative, as opposed to low self-esteem, negative emotions, and undue timidity. These predictions aren’t just passive observations—they’re active causes unto themselves.
* Source: Personal Development for Smart People by Steve Pavlina