How do you get far more output with far fewer workers?
The most believable forecast for 2020 suggests that manufacturing output in the developed countries will at least double, while manufacturing employment will shrink to 10 to 12 percent of the total workforce. What has changed manufacturing, and sharply pushed up productivity, are new concepts, such as “lean manufacturing.” Information and automation are less important than new theories of manufacturing, which are an advance comparable to the arrival of mass production eighty years ago.
The decline in manufacturing as a creator of wealth and jobs will inevitably bring about a new protectionism, once again echoing what happened earlier in agriculture. The fewer farm voters there are, the more important the “farm vote” has become. As numbers have shrunk, farmers have become a unified special-interest group that carries disproportionate clout in all rich countries.
ACTION POINT: Determine the rate of growth in output per person in your manufacturing or operations functions. Is your organization experiencing the manufacturing paradox? Recommend programs for retraining excess manufacturing workers.
Managing in the Next Society
* Source: The Daily Drucker by Peter F. Drucker