5.4 Understand how people came by their opinions.
Our brains work like computers: They input data and process it in accordance with their wiring and programming. Any opinion you have is made up of these two things: the data and your processing or reasoning. When someone says, “I believe X”, ask them: What data are you looking at? What reasoning are you using to draw your conclusion?
Dealing with raw opinions will get you and everyone else confused; understanding where they come from will help you to get to the truth.
a. If you ask someone a question, they will probably give you an answer, so think through to whom you should address your questions.
I regularly see people ask totally uninformed and nonbelievable people questions and get answers that they believe. This is often worse than having no answers at all. Don’t make that mistake. You need to think through who the right people are. If you’re in doubt about someone’s believability, find out.
The same is true for you: If someone asks you a question, think first whether you’re the right person to answer it. If you’re not believable, you probably shouldn’t have an opinion about what they’re asking, let alone share it.
Be sure to direct your comments or questions to the believable Responsible Party or Parties for the issues you want to discuss. Feel free to include others if you think that their input is relevant, while recognizing that the decision will ultimately rest with whoever is responsible for it.
b. Having everyone randomly probe everyone else is an unproductive waste of time.
For heaven’s sake don’t bother directing your questions to people who aren’t responsible or, worse still, throw your questions out there without directing them at all.
c. Beware of statements that begin with “I think that…”
Just because someone thinks something doesn’t mean it’s true. Be especially skeptical of statements that begin with “I think that I…” since most people can’t accurately assess themselves.
d. Assess believability by systematically capturing people’s track records over time.
Every day is not a new day. Over time, a body of evidence builds up, showing which people can be relied on and which cannot. Track records matter, and at Bridgewater tools such as Baseball Cards and the Dot Collector make everyone’s track records available for scrutiny.
* Source: Principles by Ray Dalio